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Positive Aussie Trade Balance release keeps markets split on RBA interest rate announcement. Manufacturing ISM released out of US. CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 04 APRIL 07 (23:30GMT)
- U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was mixed on Tuesday despite support to the slowing housing sector with Pending Home Sales coming in stronger at 109.3 for the month of February, although it created little impact. In US share markets, the NASDAQ was up by 28.07 points (+1.16%) whilst the Dow Jones was also up 128.00 (+1.03%). Crude Oil dropped by US$1.40 a barrel to US$64.54 by the end of Tuesday. Looking ahead Manufacturing ISM is scheduled for release out of the US today with market expectations that a slightly better figure of the previous 54.3 might be seen. Forecast lies at 55.0.
- The Euro (EUR) dropped by 0.3% on Tuesday against the USD. This occurred as PPI was released on consensus at 0.3% with the previous number being revised higher at 0.2. Overall, the Euro traded with a range of a low 1.3319 and a high of 1.3382 before closing the day at 1.3382 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Services PMI for the month of March is expected at 57.5 (Unchanged). In other news, Retail Sales is also scheduled for release on Wednesday at a forecasted 0.6%.
- The Japanese Yen (JPY) dropped to a month low against the USD as expectations persist that Japanese investors will continue to source high yielding investments with the beginning of the new fiscal year. Overall, the JPY traded with a range of a low of 117.13 and a high of 118.93 before closing near day highs at 118.88 in the New York session.
- The Sterling (GBP) eased 0.2% against the greenback with investors skeptical that a BoE rate hike on Thursday was less likely. Overall the GBP traded with a range of a low 1.9730 and a high of 1.9824 before closing the day at 1.9747 in the New York session.
- The Australian Dollar (AUD) remained fairly steady despite a positive Trade Balance. Overall the AUD traded within a range of a low 0.8114 and a high 0.8173 before closing the day at 0.8127. Looking ahead immediately, plenty of market attention will be focused on the RBA interest rate decision, as analysts are split on the outcome. UPDATE: RBA interest rate unchanged at 6.25%
- The South African Rand (ZAR) firmed, gaining against the dollar and Euro on improving sentiment towards emerging markets and renewed appetite for risk. Overall, the USDZAR traded with a low of 7.1665 and a high 7.2535.
- Gold (XAU) fell modestly on Tuesday in response to weaker oil process. Gold fell by US$1.80 an ounce to US$669.70
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY | Currency | Sup 2 | Sup 1 | Spot | Res 1 | Res 2 | | EUR/USD | 1.3252 | 1.3288 | 1.3335 | 1.3402 | 1.3412 | | USD/JPY | 117.20 | 117.72 | 118.80 | 118.99 | 119.51 | | GBP/USD | 1.9544 | 1.9662 | 1.9740 | 1.9833 | 1.9917 | | AUD/USD | 0.8036 | 0.8082 | 0.8085 | 0.8186 | 0.8212 | | XAU/USD | 646.20 | 652.40 | 664.60 | 669.69 | 677.75 | | | | | | |
Initial support at 1.3288 (March 30 low) followed by 1.3252 (Former resistance of Mar 7 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3402 (March 30 high) followed by 1.3412 (Mar 22 high) Initial support is located at 117.72 (Apr 3 low) followed by 117.20 (Mar 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 118.99 (Apr 3 high) followed by 119.51 (61.8% ret of 122.20 to 115.50 decline) Initial support at 1.9662 (Apr 2 low) followed by 1.9544 (Mar 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.9833 (Jan 24 high) followed by 1.9917 (Jan 23 high) - Australian Dollar – 0.8085
Initial support a 0.8082 (April 2 low) followed by 0.8036 (Mar 28 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8186 (April 2 trend high) followed by 0.8212 (Dec 2, 1996 reaction high) Initial support at 652.40 (Mar 19 low) followed by 646.20 (Mar 16 low). Initial resistance is now at 669.69 (Mar 28 high) followed by 677.75 (Feb 28 high) Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be suitable for everyone. 
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| This article provides an overview of the factors affecting the the leading currency pair: Euro-Dollar exchange, commonly expressed as EUR/USD. The Euro to Dollar exchange rate is the
price at which the world demand for US Dollar equals the world supply for Euro. Regardless of geographical origin, a rise in the world demand for Euros leads to an appreciation of the Euro. |
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Technical analysis is built on three essential principles:
1. Market action discounts everything This means that the actual price is a reflection of everything that is known to the market that could affect it, for example,
supply and demand, political factors and market sentiment. The pure technical analyst is only concerned with price movements, not with the reasons for any changes.
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