Greenspan believes carry trades are still present, but not for long. BoE and ECB interest rate announcement scheduled. CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 08 MARCH 07 (23:30GMT)
- U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was mixed against all other majors. Recent turmoil in financial markets did not change much of the top banks forecasts. A survey of analysts showed USD is expected to hold steady against the EUR in the near term. In US share markets the NASDAQ dropped by 10.5 points (-0.44%) whilst the Dow Jones also dropped -15.14 points (-0.12%). Crude oil dropped by US$0.08 a barrel US$61.74. Looking ahead, US Treasury Secretary Paulson is set to speak in Shanghai with the topic being on Chinese financial markets.
- The Euro (EUR) recovered slightly against the USD on the back of technical trading. Overall, the Euro traded in a low of 1.3110 and a high of 1.3187 before closing the day near highs at 1.3189 in the New York session. Looking ahead plenty of interest will surround the ECB interest rate announcement today with markets fairly confident of a hike to 3.75% (current: 3.50%) to materialize. As always, the accompanying press conference by President Trichet will be a point of focus with keen interest surrounding the usage of the word ‘accommodative’ implying rates will remain steady in the near term.
- The Japanese Yen (JPY) The JPY strengthened slightly against USD and EUR as Greenspan made comment that carry-trade was still present, yet at some point it has to turn (i.e. unwinding of carry trades). Hence, the JPY held strong as investors did not make directional moves ahead of bank policy meetings and Non Farm payrolls. Overall the JPY traded within a range of a low 116.21 and a high of 116.90 before closing at 116.34.
- The Sterling (GBP) surrendered its gains due to the unwinding of carry trades. Overall, the GBP traded with a low 1.9263 and a high of 1.9358 before closing at 1.9340 in the New York session. Looking ahead, the BoE is scheduled for an interest rate announcement today with market expectations at an unchanged figure of 5.25%
- The Australian Dollar (AUD) rebounded on the back of a better than expected GDP number coming in at 1.0%. In other news the RBA interest rate announcement also was made public with a result an unchanged figure of 6.25%. Overall the AUD traded within a range of a low 0.7742 and a high 0.7793 before closing near day highs at 0.7790 in the New York session.
- Gold (XAU) rose by US$6.60 an ounce to US$652.80 on the back of stronger oil prices.
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY | Currency | Sup 2 | Sup 1 | Spot | Res 1 | Res 2 | | EUR/USD | 1.3016 | 1.3072 | 1.3175 | 1.3213 | 1.3261 | | USD/JPY | 114.43 | 115.15 | 115.70 | 116.91 | 117.84 | | GBP/USD | 1.9182 | 1.9184 | 1.9295 | 1.9361 | 1.9450 | | AUD/USD | 0.7631 | 0.7680 | 0.7755 | 0.7798 | 0.7846 | | XAU/USD | 626.73 | 633.00 | 648.95 | 651.60 | 656.40 |
Initial support at 1.3072 (Mar 5 low) followed by 1.3016 (Feb 22 corrective low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3213 (Mar 5 high) followed by 1.3261 (Feb 27 high). Initial support is located at 115.15 (Mar 5 low) followed by 114.43 (Dec 5 reaction low). Initial resistance is now at 116.91 (Mar 7 high) followed by 117.84 (Mar 2 high) Initial support at 1.9184 (Mar 5 low) followed by 1.9182 (Former resistance from Nov 10). Initial resistance is now at 1.9361 (Mar 7 high) followed by 1.9450 (Mar 5 high) - Australian Dollar – 0.7755
Initial support at 0.7680 (Mar 6 low) followed by 0.7631 (61.8% retracement of the .7914 to 0.7982 advance). Initial resistance is now at 0.7798 (Mar 7 high) followed by 0.7846 (61.8% retracement of the 0.7948 to 0.7680 decline) Initial support at 633.00 (Mar 6 low) followed by 626.73 (Jan 18 low). Initial resistance is now at 651.60 (Mar 7 high) followed by 656.40 (Former support from Feb 20) Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss, and may not be suitable for everyone. 
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